Labor productivity forecasts based on a Beveridge–Nelson filter: Is there statistical evidence for a slowdown?

In this paper, I assess the evidence for a structural break in labor productivity growth in the years before the Great Recession with the use of out-of-sample forecasting exercises for the years 2010 to 2019 and the recently developed Beveridge–Nelson filter. Models based on a Beveridge–Nelson filter with no structural breaks outperform those allowing for a structural break, and there is statistically significant evidence that they outperform the random walk, though all models were too optimistic about labor productivity growth. Recently developed statistical tests do point to the presence of a structural break before the Great Recession, but uncertainty about the data-generating process for labor productivity growth or the timing and magnitude of the break may be too great to be helpful in forecast preparation.     

Labor market analysis through transformations and robust multivariate models

The work presents a robust approach to labor share analysis. The estimate of labor share presents various complexities related to the nature of the data sets to be analyzed. Typically, labor share is evaluated by using discriminant analysis and linear or generalized linear models, that do not take into account the presence of possible outliers. Moreover, the variables to be considered are often characterized by a high dimensional structure. The proposed approach has the objective of improving the estimation of the model using robust multivariate regression techniques and data transformation.     

劳动力价格、信息不对称与农户精细管理技术投入——基于质量识别能力差异的视角

近年来,劳动力价格的快速上涨已然成为中国农业生产所必须面对的内在挑战。对于机械作业难度相对较大的劳动密集型作物而言,在缓解劳动力约束瓶颈的同时,更应通过精细化的果园管理,以提高产品质量,进而提高其市场价格。然而,由于农产品具有典型的经验品属性,在信息不对称的外部约束下,农户通常难以获得应有的"质量溢价"。基于此,本文通过构建理论分析框架,以果品质量关键环节的精细管理技术作为研究对象,系统分析在劳动力价格上涨背景下农户精细管理技术投入的决策机制,以及在不同农产品质量识别程度中,劳动力成本变化对其影响的异质性,并基于全国18个省份农户的调研数据进行实证研究。研究结果表明:农户交易对象质量识别能力的提高,能够缓解农户与购买者之间存在的信息不对称性,将农产品质量信息传递给购买者,使农户获得更高的销售价格,进而在有效提高农户精细管理技术投入水平的同时,能够弱化劳动力价格对其所产生的负面影响。     

工资对个人劳动供给的非线性影响：部门市场化程度差异视角

从市场经济体制的建立到经济社会高质量发展，我国不同部门市场化程度有所差异，劳动供给的部门异质性随之体现。基于中国劳动力动态调查数据，结合汉森门槛回归模型和劳动供给模型，依托部门市场化程度的差异性，文章探讨了工资对劳动力个人供给的非线性影响及其部门异质性。主要得出以下研究结论：第一，我国市场部门与公共部门劳动力的个人劳动供给有所差异。第二，工资与个人劳动供给呈现非线性关系并且存在部门异质性。实证分析结果显示，工资对个人劳动供给的影响存在三个"突变点"，工资门槛均使得工资"激励效应"加强并呈现逐步增加的趋势。第三，劳动供给的工资门槛存在性别、城乡和行业异质性。第四，随着年龄增长、人力资本积累，个人劳动时间供给趋于降低，签署书面劳工合同使得市场部门劳动力工作时间显著增加，而政治面貌显著影响公共部门劳动供给。总体来看，无论是市场部门还是公共部门，我国劳动力个人供给曲线均未"向后弯曲"，国民经济高质量发展、改善收入分配格局、提升居民幸福感等议题需持续关注。     

Up- and down- alliances: A systematic literature review

This paper develops a systematic literature review about up- and down- alliances: vertical alliances (VAs) characterized by long term continuity between firms operating in adjacent stages of a value chain. Vertical alliances are a must for firms operating in a complex and unstable world, because they guarantee the advantages deriving from the vertical coordination of the value chain as well as the flexibility of cooperation.In spite of the copious literature on alliances, few contributions focus specifically on VAs, so a clear overview of the phenomenon is missing. Furthermore, the different terminology and definitions found in the literature are confusing. Our systematic literature review identifies the theoretical approaches which are most used to study the development, potential and dynamics of VAs. The review highlights the main theories and the most explored topics, and identifies the gaps still existing in the literature. From the review, we developed a taxonomy to determine which research stream would be most congruent to a specific research topic.     

要素自由流动能实现区域协调发展吗——基于“协调性集聚”的理论假说与实证检验

经济活动的空间集聚是当代经济内涵式增长的源泉,现有文献多从要素流动视角来考察经济集聚过程中的区域差异。然而,若将要素流动引入区域生产函数进行推导,可以发现非区域性要素集中规模的扩大,既能提高要素流入区域的劳动生产率,也能提高要素流出区域的要素收益率,基于此,本文以“协调性集聚”为核心概念,通过拓展现代集聚模型来构建要素在自由流动中走向协调发展的理论假说。实证结果进一步显示,虽然我国发展要素在大规模流向东部发达地区,并呈现进一步向超大城市和城市群集聚的趋势,但要素流动在提高要素流入区域劳动生产率的同时,也显著提高了要素流出区域的要素收益率,并从需求侧激发了要素流出区域的市场潜能,要素流动在要素配置效率不断提高的过程中呈现“协调性集聚”的趋势。因此,发达的要素流入区域通过优化公共服务体系提高劳动生产率,欠发达的要素流出区域通过建立健全要素自由流动机制提高要素回报率和收益率,是新时代我国形成市场主导型区域协调发展机制的有效途径。     

The Limitations of International Relations Regarding MNCs and the Digital Economy: Evidence from Brazil

ABSTRACT

Multinationals (MNCs) have been considered a relevant research topic for International Relations since the emergence of the field of International Political Economy in the 1970s. Nowadays, MNCs are undergoing deep changes in their business models and global strategies due to the digital economy. This has considerable implications for the international system. For instance, the rise of information and communication technology (ICT) MNCs to the top of market value lists globally. Nonetheless, IR scholars have been slow in grasping the importance of ICT MNCs and the digital economy. In this paper, I justify this statement by evaluating the inclusion of MNCs and ICT MNCs in Brazilian IR scholarship. The method used is a bibliometric mapping of the scientific production of Brazilian IR scholars, supported by a systematic literature review. The results showcase that, in spite of the impact of digitalization on Brazil's economy and politics, IR scholars have conducted few studies on MNCs and practically no studies on ICT MNCs. This case illustrates the emergence of new dynamics in global value chains triggered by digitalization. It also illustrates the challenges for developing countries such as Brazil to engage in global production networks within the highly competitive ICT sector.     

New development: China renews reform of central–local fiscal relations and provides for basic national public services

China’s reform on central–local fiscal reform has slowed down in recent years. The appointment of a new finance minister experienced in local government affairs is expected to renew the reform affirmed by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) congress in late 2017. China has unprecedentedly identified a comprehensive list of 81 national basic public services as entitlements. Eighteen of them are subject to national and local standards, and co-financed by central and local governments. A new cost-sharing method for 10 of these services classifies sub-national jurisdictions into five tiers, in which the central government’s share declines from 80% to 10%. These measures, effective in 2019, aim at creating a ‘harmonious and moderately prosperous society’.     

照看子女、劳动参与和灵活就业:中国女性如何平衡家庭与工作

文章利用中国家庭收入调查2007和2008年数据研究了未成年子女对女性劳动参与和职业选择的影响。研究结果表明，家中有未成年子女显著降低了女性工作的可能性，提升了工作女性选择灵活就业的可能性；学龄前子女更有可能导致女性退出劳动力市场，而6-14岁子女更有可能导致女性选择灵活就业；不工作和选择灵活就业使女性更有可能成为学龄前子女的主要照顾者，但灵活就业并没有减少女性的工作时间；女性获得工作灵活性的代价是工资水平显著下降。上述结论在解决了女性劳动参与、职业选择和生育决策的内生性问题之后依然是稳健的。文章的结论对"全面二孩"政策背景保障女性就业有一定借鉴意义。     

Young people with intellectual disabilities and sport as a leisure activity: notions from the Finnish welfare society

Although disability sports have recently received positive attention, little concern has been directed towards them in youth research. In this article, we discuss the free-time sports in which youth with intellectual disabilities engage as a part of their leisure and their association with their peers. We maintain that every young person has a principal right to leisure and question what kinds of access youth with intellectual disabilities have to local sports communities in the Finnish context. Our empirical data consist of notes collected during sports training; interviews with young sports participants, their supervisors, and their parents; and online survey responses. Almost all sports are equally accessible to everyone; however, practical engagement in sports is not equally easy for everyone because long distances, lack of transportation, unsuitable sporting occasions and teams, or incapable coaches limit individuals’ participation possibilities. Furthermore, symbolic structures, such as neglectful attitudes, restrict the visibility of youth with intellectual disabilities in leisure sports. In many ways, supporting networks become significant when access to sport is under scrutiny. The most important enabling and restricting factors are families’ symbolic and material capital, as well as the unequal, poorly guided, and occasional leisure possibilities in different localities.